Mediterranean Foresight: Shaping Europe’s Future Value Chains

As global value chains are being reshaped by geopolitical realignment, technological change and the energy transition, the Mediterranean is uniquely positioned to become a strategic corridor for Europe’s future value chains, strengthening the region’s industrial resilience and competitiveness.

Drawing on a foresight methodology combining expert insights, scenario development and multistakeholder dialogue, this white paper explores four plausible futures for the Mediterranean by 2035, based on two critical uncertainties: the evolution of its geoeconomic order and its technological positioning. Rather than predicting a single outcome, it examines the strategic choices that could shape the region’s future and identifies a set of cross-cutting strategic actions that remain relevant across a range of possible scenarios.

The paper provides governments, businesses and international organizations with a practical agenda to move from shared diagnosis to coordinated action, helping position the Mediterranean as a more connected, resilient and competitive production, energy and innovation corridor supporting Europe’s next generation of value chains.